Center for Equal Opportunity

Hispanic Panic

The following is an excerpt from my piece in the upcoming issue of Commentary magazine. The full version is available here.

Turning conservative opinion around on the contentious issue of immigration will not be easy. But without such a shift, conservative candidates will find it difficult to win national and statewide elections as they face an electorate that includes a rapidly expanding share of Hispanic voters.

Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the United States. Numbering more than 50 million, Hispanics constitute 16 percent of the overall population; and their proportion will continue to increase even if all immigration—legal and illegal—were to cease today. On average, Hispanics are younger than non-Hispanic whites (with a median age of 27 compared with 42), give birth to more children (2.4 to 1.8), and enjoy greater longevity (81 years to 78). These factors guarantee that the Hispanic share of the population—and the electorate—will continue to rise. What is more, 22 percent of all children in the United States today are Hispanic, and the majority of them are the offspring of at least one foreign-born parent. This fact alone guarantees immigration will remain a potent issue among Hispanic voters for a generation or more.

In 2012, Hispanics represented 10 percent of the electorate, up from 9 percent in 2008 and 8 percent in 2004. In several battleground states, they represented a larger faction: 14 percent in Colorado, 17 percent in Florida, and 18 percent in Nevada, all of which Mitt Romney lost. Even in traditionally non-Hispanic areas of the country, including Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin, Hispanic voters were a factor.

It is no wonder, then, that many prominent Republicans and conservative opinion leaders, including those who have opposed comprehensive immigration control in the past, are now reconsidering their position. ….

So, how to begin?  First, conservatives should be comforted and calmed by one key fact, if it is explained to them. Security is better than it has ever been thanks to 650 miles of fencing at the southern border, more border-patrol agents, better surveillance and technology, and more deportations—all policies conservatives have advocated.

But they also need to understand the circumstances that drive illegal immigration and how best to address them. Immigrants fill important niches in the American labor market, at both the high and low ends of the skills spectrum. Our current immigration laws do not admit sufficient numbers of legal residents to fill those jobs.  Oddly enough, conservatives do seem to see the value in immigration when it comes to highly skilled immigrants. During the campaign, Romney said he would like to staple a green card to the diploma of every foreign student graduating from an American college with a degree in science, technology, engineering, or math. Yet the need for foreign workers is just as great in many low-skilled industries such as agriculture, meat and poultry processing, and hospitality. These jobs don’t pay enough to attract U.S.-born workers; raising wages sufficiently to entice Americans to take them, which is a key notion for certain conservative thinkers, would simply drive many of these jobs out of the country.

The better alternative would be to increase the number of legal resident and temporary visas available to meet the demand for labor. …

Conservatives are worried that the Hispanic influx will lead to the creation of a new, permanent underclass of the poorly educated, welfare-dependent, and criminally inclined.  Second, they fear that respect for the rule of law is being damaged in the failure—and in some cases, the outright refusal—to enforce existing legislation. These are serious concerns, and they must be addressed seriously.

The demographic profile of Hispanic immigrants should encourage confidence that, like most immigrants of previous generations, they may start off life in America on the bottom rungs of the economic ladder, but they—or at least their children—are not likely to stay there. Hispanic\ immigrants may be poorer on average, but they are not mired in the underclass. They are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to live in married households with children, and with a father who works. Hispanic males are also more likely than others to be in the labor force; male illegal immigrants have the highest labor-force participation rates of any group, 94 percent.

Hispanic immigrants do have lower levels of education than other groups, though the education levels of recent cohorts have risen significantly over the last several decades, with 41 percent having completed high school and 18 percent graduating college.  More important, their children are rapidly catching up with non-Hispanic whites in education levels. A recent report by the Pew Hispanic Center shows that Hispanics overall are catching up with non-Hispanic whites in years of education completed, lagging behind by 10 percent in high school graduation and college attendance. And second-generation Hispanics are actually more likely to attend college and earn four-year degrees than those from the third generation or those with even deeper roots in American soil.

Then there is the belief—the sadly and horribly mistaken belief—that Hispanic immigrants have increased crime rates in communities where they settle, especially those home to large numbers of illegal immigrants.  That is not only untrue; it appears to be quite the opposite of reality. According to a study of crime rates by Congressional Quarterly, of the 10 safest big cities in the United States, six (El Paso, New York, San Jose, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Denver) have Hispanic populations that range from 20 to more than 80 percent. Of those populations, 30 percent or more are immigrants. …

Still, conservatives and all Americans have a right to expect that those who have broken the law by coming or staying here illegally should make some restitution. The details of that restitution—civil fines, the payment of any taxes owed, and perhaps longer waiting periods to be eligible for citizenship—are open for discussion. But if conservatives hope to influence that debate, they must give up the notion of punitive penalties or the hope that these immigrants will simply go back to the land from where they came.

It was not so long ago that conservatives saw Hispanics as potential allies and family-oriented, religious, socially conservative recruits. Indeed, in the wake of Romney’s defeat, Republicans have again taken note of the fact that Hispanics logically belong in their broad coalition. The general affiliation of Hispanics with the Democratic Party will not change quickly, even if Republicans soon see the disaster ahead of them in continuing to alienate a rapidly growing group of voters. But Republicans need not win them all; should they win only 30 to 40 percent, they will (in the short-to-medium run) do well enough to prevail nationally and in statewide elections as well. The problem is not one of demographics. The demographics are what they are. Republicans have a policy crisis on their hands.

Demographics will not change. Policies can.

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Hispanic Panic

[Full Version of the Article from Commentary Magazine]

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