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Facts are stubborn things,
unfortunately not nearly as stubborn as factoids. And nowhere do
factoids trump facts more frequently than in the immigration debate.
The latest example comes from Pat Buchanan in his new book, "State of
Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America," where
Buchanan regurgitates factoids ad nauseam, all with the purpose of
blaming Mexicans for just about everything wrong with America.
The
problem is, some of Buchanan's "facts" are mere factoids. Let's take
one of the most stubborn factoids to emerge in the immigration debate,
one that Buchanan cites as do other commentators: 95 percent of all the
outstanding homicide warrants in Los Angeles, which total 1,200-1,500,
are for illegal aliens. Sounds pretty damning, that is until you try to
pin down where it came from and what it means.
I've been
tracking this particular factoid for a while, since it crops up over
and over again, and I've even exchanged e-mails with the source,
Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute. In 2004, Mac Donald
wrote an article for the Manhattan Institute's City Journal, "The
Illegal Alien Crime Wave," in which she first used this statistic.
The
problem is, the Los Angeles Police Department doesn't collect
information on the immigration status of criminals, much less suspects,
so there is no database of how many illegal aliens are wanted on
outstanding homicide warrants. When I asked Mac Donald to provide her
source, she said, "The LAPD fugitive warrants section gave me that
figure." I don't doubt Mac Donald's word — she is an old friend.
Someone, Mac Donald won't say who, undoubtedly gave her this
misinformation. But several calls to the LAPD elicited the same
response: We don't collect such information — which was borne out by
searching all available databases and talking to respected
criminologists.
This
particular factoid has been debunked by several sources, including the
Los Angeles Times and Snopes.com, but it just won't die. And other
factors make the statistic highly suspicious. In all of 2004, there
were only 518 homicides in Los Angeles, suggesting that the number of
outstanding warrants (no matter whom they are for) must date back over
many years, unless we are to assume that all murders in 2004 were
committed by at least two illegal aliens and that no one was ever been
arrested for any recent homicide.
The
statistics on immigrants and crime are shocking — but not for the
reasons Buchanan et al. would have you believe. It's hard to pin down
statistics on how many crimes are committed by immigrants (or all
Hispanics, for that matter) because the Bureau of Justice Statistics
(the largest source of data) collects information broken down by race
and gender, but not ethnicity or country of birth. However, it is
possible to examine who's in jail or prison by nativity, which should
be a pretty good proxy for determining who is committing serious
crimes. And when you look at this data, the results are little short of
amazing.
University of California professor Ruben Rumbaut, an expert on
immigration and crime, looked at 2000 Census data on the
institutionalized population in the United States, most of whom are in
prisons, and came up with these astonishing facts. Immigrants are far
less likely to be in jail or prison than other U.S. residents (the
database covers federal, state, county and local prisons and jails). Of
the U.S. population of 45.2 million men ages 18-39 (those most likely
to be in the criminal population), 3 percent were incarcerated, or
about 1.3 million at the time of the 2000 Census. But of these, blacks,
whites and U.S.-born Hispanics had incarceration rates that dwarfed
those of immigrants. Only .7 percent of Mexican-born males were in
prison or jail, compared with 3.51 percent of all U.S.-born males,
which includes 1.71 percent of non-Hispanic whites, 11.6 percent of
blacks and 5.9 percent of Mexican Americans. Indeed, for all
foreign-born groups, immigrants have lower incarceration rates than all
U.S.-born racial and ethnic groups do, including whites.
But these
facts have yet to banish the factoid that immigrants commit more crimes
than the native born. And you can bet that demagogues like Buchanan
will continue to ignore the facts and repeat the factoids.
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